The bump for McCain earlier this week was actually mostly due to a change in polling demographics. For some reason, three major pollers all of the sudden decided to poll equal Dems and GOP despite the fact that there’s more registered Dems. No idea why. So no need to panic.
Electoral College: McCain 268.1; Obama 269.9.
Popular Vote: McCain 49.6%; Obama 48.8%.
McCain is also now the slight favorite in Colorado, with Obama losing some traction in New Mexico.
Nate Silver does say this, though:
…[T]he headline is that our model has now pretty much fully caught up with John McCain’s bounce — attributing him with about a 1 point lead in the national popular vote. As a result, it also now regards him as the slight favorite to win the Electoral College. As I’ve disclaimed before, however, we are still in the immediate aftermath of the convention period, and as such all polls need to be treated cautiously. The next movement in the polls is still more likely to be toward Obama than toward McCain.
I hope he’s right. Let this madness end!
